Global Scans · Democracy · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Society is expressing its discontent with current democratic processes that leave the elites struggling to convince their voters of their good intentions and competencies. Read on to see how democracy is offering both great opportunities and risks while this period of volatility shakes out.

• [New] While some countries in the Middle East - Lebanon, Palestine, Iran - develop a new strain of Muslim democracy, many will not manage to change their politics quickly enough to keep up with social demands. Centre for European Reform
• [New] An expanded Eurosphere that includes Bulgaria, Romania, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the Balkans, Moldova, Belarus and Georgia will share a belief in democracy with the United States - but be alienated from it because of a habit of multilateralism. Centre for European Reform
• [New] Ancient civilizations like China and India will become more self-confident and will project their own ideas on to concepts such as democracy, freedom and the rule of law. Centre for European Reform
• [New] Trump has threatened to issue further orders to disrupt mail voting, ban voting machines, and install new voter ID requirements. State Court Report
• [New] The U.S. House approved the PROTECT Taiwan Act by a 395-2 vote to exclude China from major international financial institutions if it threatens Taiwan's security. The Asia Cable
• [New] We expect Japanese equities to react positively to any potential fiscal and monetary stimulus measures introduced following the early election in February. Collidr
• [New] Thailand's next government is expected to take office by the end of April following the Bhumjaithai Party's election victory. The Asia Cable
• [New] New restrictions on voting emerging in countries including the US will have a disproportionate impact on older persons' ability to participate in elections and influence decisions that matter to their lives. Opinio Juris
• [New] Well Erdogan will likely need Kurdish votes to win the next election, and a range of factors seem to be coming together to make a Kurdish peace possible. @tashecon blog
• [New] The accession process will help address Turkey's democratic shortcomings and make reforms durable while strengthening the EU's capacity to deal with growing geopolitical and economic challenges. Turkish Minute
• [New] Guinea, Sudan and South Sudan will continue under the control of non-democratic rulers. Africa.com
• [New] Autocracies will continue to solidify and expand their control over former democratic countries in 2026 - a trend that began in 2021 when a military junta took over Senegal. Africa.com
• [New] Ideological Threat: A successful, democratic Chinese society on Taiwan is a permanent challenge to the CCP's authoritarian model. Ronin's Grips
• [New] With voting now complete, attention turns to whether Costa Rica's fractured electorate will deliver a first-round winner or force a runoff. CNN
• [New] Scenario 2 If the election result leads to the formation of a coalition government led by the Bhumjaithai Party and other conservative parties, relations with Cambodia will continue in a state of managed tension. VOD
• [New] The risk of protests and clashes is increasing as Bangladesh prepares for its upcoming parliamentary election. Bloomsbury Intelligence & Security Institute (BISI)
• [New] Many young workers plan overseas moves for caregiving, skilled trades, or corporate postings, with destinations that include Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Africa, and South America. The Asia Cable
• [New] The participation of veterans in public and political life has the potential to transform Ukrainian democracy. Atlantic Council
• [New] Unless structural reforms are undertaken to restore judicial independence, protect civil liberties, and ensure genuine competition, Uganda will remain trapped in the cycle of contested elections, a pseudo-democracy. Centre for Human Rights
• [New] American Democracy is in dire danger, with the decline of honest journalism, and with major news sources compromised. The Progressive Professor
• [New] Analysts are still debating whether Venezuela will hold an election before the end of 2026. NEXT.io
• [New] Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's likely arrest will weaken his political influence, but the far-right will remain strong, potentially threatening left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election bid in 2026. Stratfor

Last updated: 15 February 2026