Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] In an uncertain macroeconomic environment, episodes of volatility in the Hungarian forint cannot be ruled out and could therefore exert upward pressure on inflation through imported inflation. economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] After the strong rise in exports early in the year ahead of expected US tariff increases, German goods exports - especially to the United States - have recently lost momentum as global trade has slowed. BMWI
• [New] By 2027, the import of Russian liquefied natural gas will be completely prohibited - one year earlier than previously planned. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] Internationally, Trump-era policy is unpredictable (tariffs, trade disputes, sanctions) but at home, regulatory streamlining and tax relief have provided enough certainty for private capital to commit to midstream build-out. / Canada LNG Industry
• [New] While some US domestic producers could benefit from protectionist tariffs, an escalation of US-China trade war would significantly disrupt the global supply chain of key industries, including electronics, semiconductors, and automobiles. Euromonitor
• [New] US consumers would bear the brunt of rising prices under a trade escalation scenario, seeing inflation surging to 5.8% in 2026. Euromonitor
• [New] Tariffs could see their profits drop by billions of dollars by the end of 2025, with some shifting or closing production in Canada, which has led to job cuts. Global News
• [New] So far the impact of the tariff blitz on the US economy appears to be relatively muted, though it is being masked by the historic boom in AI investment, which a growing number of experts warn may be a bubble. The Guardian
• [New] Cross-Border Payments In global trade, CBDCs could eliminate the inefficiencies of correspondent banking. TradingView
• [New] If there is a shift in export policy by Beijing, a shipping issue or a geopolitical service cut-off, Pakistan will not have any alternative supplier, warns Asumi Heibitan, an electrical engineer at the University of Turbat. Dawn
• [New] International frameworks, from the IMO's Facilitation Convention, which mandates digital port systems, to the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement, are pushing for universal adoption, especially in developing countries that risk being left behind. The Daily Brief by Zerodha
• [New] Overall merchandise trade will grow barely 0.1% in 2025. The Daily Brief by Zerodha
• [New] UNCTAD expects trade to rise by just 0.5% in 2025, essentially flat. The Daily Brief by Zerodha
• [New] US stock futures rose Sunday after US and Chinese representatives agreed on a framework for a trade deal, potentially averting a tariff hike to 157% on Chinese goods and as investors expect another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. CNN
• [New] Markets believe China and the USA will make a deal about rare earth exports and tariffs. DailyForex
• [New] Global automakers could collectively incur a $30 billion reduction in 2025 operating profits because of import tariffs. JD Supra
• [New] Announced & Implemented - 125% tariff on goods from China, Hong Kong, and Macau: Goods originating from China, Hong Kong, and Macau will now face a 125% tariff, effective immediately. Zonos
• [New] President Donald Trump said he will increase tariffs on Canada by another 10% in response to a Canadian anti-tariff ad that features former President Ronald Reagan. Business Insider
• [New] Tariffs will cost the heavy machinery maker Caterpillar Inc. as much as $1.8 billion in 2025 and GM faces a gross bill of $4.5 billion. / USA Communications Today
• [New] China is expected to press the Trump administration to remove tariff measures and restrictions on semiconductor exports to China. NHK World
• Instead of one dominant global currency, the world could drift toward a patchwork of competing blocs: a dollar-led West, a yuan-centered Asia, and a BRICS trade zone increasingly fluent in local currencies. JD Supra
• For the world, Beijing's next plan will likely mean both opportunity and challenge: continued dominance in clean energy technologies and AI, but growing fragmentation of global trade and technology systems. The Business Standard

Last updated: 30 October 2025