Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Key challenges of going global include navigating complex tariffs and international tax obligations, overcoming cultural and language barriers, managing compliance with local employment laws, and coordinating teams across multiple time zones. Rippling
• [New] Growing intra-regional trade will offset the loss incurred by rising tariff barriers of the USA. GorakhaPatra
• [New] Further price support is likely to come from China, which accounts for 60% of global production but has only marginally increased output, while Guinean bauxite export controls present an additional source of risk. Westpac IQ
• [New] The revised Russia sanctions bill could redirect additional energy trade through Asia and impose new compliance decisions on refiners, shippers and financial institutions, although its final scope remains unclear. Fault Lines
• [New] Reckitt Benckiser expanded Durex capacity in Thailand to shorten supply chains and hedge tariff risk. Mordor Intelligence
• [New] Russia's shadow fleet is how it has been circumventing sanctions to export grain and import agricultural inputs - damaging 40 vessels simultaneously is not a minor disruption. Dewing Grain - Norfolk & Suffolk's grain marketing & st
• [New] Businesses managing shipping from China are facing higher transportation costs, limited container availability, longer transit times, and unpredictable surcharges across major trade lanes. -
• [New] Asia-Pacific outbound ocean freight shows strong export activity but faces geopolitical risks, peak season pressure, and shifting network requirements. Al Sharqi
• [New] The US-China relationship has stabilized modestly, and multiple Trump-Xi meetings are expected in 2026, creating opportunities for incremental progress, with key questions around export controls and access to advanced technology unresolved. Androscoggin Financial Services
• [New] Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity. Peoples Gazette Nigeria
• [New] The Strait of Hormuz crisis could produce ripple effects through the global coffee sector, even though most coffee-producing countries do not rely on the route for their main export flows. CNS Media
• [New] The U.S. trade deficit came in at $77.6 billion in May, up from the revised $54.6 billion in April and just below the $78.08 billion that economists polled by Dow Jones expected. CNBC
• [New] Import Vulnerability: India's high import reliance on crude oil and natural gas exposes it to risks from Strait of Hormuz disruptions, raising trade deficit and inflation. PMF IAS
• [New] Rising tariffs and the U.S. retreat from international trade may threaten the dollar's role as a safe-haven and anchor currency. Plus500
• [New] Though tensions have eased recently and immediate threats to Gulf trade flows appear to have somewhat receded, the Strait of Hormuz remains a key chokepoint for the global supply of energy. European Central Bank
• [New] A cluster of US trade policy deadlines in July, including the expiry of Section 122 tariffs and new Section 301 measures affecting more than 60 jurisdictions, will drive global trade volatility in the coming weeks. Seerist
• [New] Trade - World trade in wheat in 2023/24 is expected to fall by -4.8% yr/yr to 209.5 million metric tons. Barchart.com
• [New] US port throughput growth will flatten in 2026, as tariff-related front-loading unwinds and trade policy uncertainty persists. atradius
• [New] Countries like Brazil frame trade coordination as an opportunity for incentives and investment, arguing against protectionist measures (like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) that hinder development. ORF America
• [New] Even a weak or moderate El Nino could bring daily losses of $85 million across the agricultural, trade, and manufacturing sectors in seven Peruvian regions. Earth Island Journal
• [New] Higher global energy and fertilizer prices, together with continued supply chain disruptions, could intensify inflationary pressures, weaken household consumption, and weigh on Mongolia's export performance and fiscal position. Asian Development Bank
• [New] Export controls demonstrate to other countries the risks of depending on AI from unreliable U.S. partners and push them to embrace Chinese open-source models. Default

Last updated: 16 July 2026