Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Besides transshipment, recent trade deals with Malaysia and Cambodia include provisions aimed at reducing cooperation between nations that could potentially hurt U.S. interests. Icas
• [New] From January-September alone, the U.S. collected $1.5 billion in tariffs on toys and dolls, $448 million on video game consoles, $446 million on Christmas ornaments, and $1 billion on sports equipment, with final 2025 totals expected to climb even higher as most toy imports arrive in Q4. Chamber of Progress
• [New] The Chinese Strategy: S&P analysts noted that high uncertainties under U.S. tariffs and China's slowdown will continue to motivate Chinese firms to head to the Global South, potentially creating a new order of global commerce where South-South trade becomes the new center of gravity. Medium
• [New] The IMF is particularly concerned about the possibility of further tariff increases causing supply chain disruptions, which could reduce global output by 0.3% in 2026. Economic Development World - CPD and community of pract
• [New] There's the possibility of a comprehensive trade agreement between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico because the CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) is up for renewal in 2026. BDC.ca
• [New] If the European Council and Commission eventually decide that terms such as veggie burgers and vegan sausages are to be banned in the EU, they are likely to be banned in the UK as well, for fear of jeopardising trade agreements. The Guardian
• [New] The trade barriers implemented by Trump this year have in many cases been extreme in size (145% on China in April!), unpredictable in nature and timing, and have increased the cost and complexity of cross border trading. Royal London Asset Management
• [New] Canada will continue to honour its existing CUSMA carve-out, and a new 25% tariff will apply on various steel derivative products (C$10 billion), including doors and windows, wires, fasteners, bridges and wind towers, from all countries. JD Supra
• [New] Tariffs on Chinese cars will increase up to 50% from the current 15-20 per cent range. East Asia Forum
• [New] Some of the headwinds related to tariffs and trade policy uncertainty should start to fade, therefore, euro area growth is expected to pick up in the first quarter of 2026, returning to 0.3%. / Ireland European Central Bank
• [New] Export growth is expected to remain subdued despite improving foreign demand, as persistent euro area competitiveness challenges, US tariffs and the past appreciation of the euro weigh on export performance. European Central Bank
• [New] Even with exemptions, Trump's tariffs will cause prices to rise $1,700 for the average American household. The Guardian
• [New] U.S. signals changes for CUSMA: U.S. trade officials are signalling that Canada will need to make policy changes if it wants long-term certainty under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, as the trade deal comes up for mandatory review in 2026. BNN Bloomberg
• [New] Escalating geopolitical conflicts, tariff and trade wars, increasingly complex regulations and growing volatility will disrupt global trade flows like never before. Business Mondays
• [New] Tariff-related inflation should peak in early 2026. Yahoo Finance UK
• [New] Bond markets faced uncertainty as the Fed projected only two rate cuts through 2027, balancing strong employment data against risks from Trump-era tariffs and stagnant labour force participation (59.6% employment-population ratio). Ainvest
• [New] Geopolitical Risks: China's push for self-sufficiency and retaliatory trade measures could disrupt global supply chains. Ainvest
• [New] A growing economy will drive similar mid-single-digit revenue growth as in 2025, while margins are expected to inch higher as tariffs are fully absorbed and benefits from AI increasingly permeate, enabling the potential for double-digit earnings growth. Tortuga Wealth Management
• [New] Potential AI disappointments, possible upward pressure on long-term interest rates, renewed global trade tensions, and geopolitical instability will remain key risks for stock investors to monitor. Tortuga Wealth Management
• [New] US production output currently remains positive despite global trade wars, with predicted growth of between 2% and 3% for 2025. Automation.com
• [New] Annual average CPI inflation is projected to fall slightly in 2025 to 3.5% but is expected to edge up in 2026 due to negotiated increases in electricity tariffs. Mirage News
• [New] Services should remain the main driver of growth in Q4 and into 2026, while factory output is likely to stay weak amid tariff-related headwinds, growing competitiveness from other countries like China, and structural challenges. The Conference Board

Last updated: 25 December 2025