Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] The increase in the US tariff burden by the Trump administration affects more than just trade policy; screening authorities increasingly treat tariff-driven dislocation as an FDI predatory-acquisition risk: targets lose value, supply chains become fragile, and capacity becomes strategic. JD Supra
• [New] Revenues from the Southern African Customs Union, which accounted for 46% of total revenue, are projected to decline due to the anticipated slowdown in South African trade - the source of 98% of SACU receipts. Coface
• [New] The wide-ranging tariffs introduced in 2026 by the federal government could threaten worldwide economic growth and contribute to continued worries of a recession here in the US. PCBB
• [New] Nearly 70% of respondents now expect a fragmented or multipolar global order - a shift that will continue to reshape investment, trade and corporate strategy for years to come. European Business Magazine
• [New] Export controls, tariffs, sanctions and financial restrictions are increasingly being used to project power, reshaping everything from global trade flows to the AI infrastructure boom now under way across Europe, the United States and Asia. European Business Magazine
• [New] The recent trade deal between Washington and Beijing is only a temporary truce, allowing both sides to reduce vulnerabilities. / China LBBW
• [New] Correct Mexican tariff classification will become increasingly important, and companies may need to assess alternative sourcing options, including suppliers located in countries with Mexican trade agreements or domestic suppliers. Cacheaux, Cavazos & Newton
• [New] If Washington adopts tariffs, Beijing is expected to hit back with its own duties on US imports, including soybeans, cars, chemicals and planes. The Daily Star
• [New] If the European Union and the US could agree on standards for data privacy and protection, they would take a giant step towards setting the global standard for digital trade. Wilson Center
• [New] Countries doing business with Iran could be subjected to a 25% tariff on trade with the United States, effective immediately. Just Security
• [New] Early-January industry testimony in India warned of up to a per cent drop in export orders for the January-March quarter, citing US tariff impacts and buyers redirecting sourcing within Asia. Fibre2Fashion
• [New] The Trump administration has been using the threat of heavy tariffs to convince major drugmakers to increase their presence in the US, provide drugs more cheaply to Medicaid, sell less expensive drugs directly to patients and set prices abroad at least as high as in the US. KFF Health News
• [New] Any hint of a slowdown in data center demand or further geopolitical friction - such as the recently expanded chip export restrictions to China - could serve as the catalyst for the broader 15% correction that analysts fear. Valley City Times-Record
• [New] China's rising global manufacturing share brings tariff risk, while households send money abroad and implied outflows reached $80.2 billion despite $3.35 trillion in reserves. The Asia Cable
• [New] The Trump administration allowed sales of Nvidia H200 chips to approved Chinese buyers, which could reduce the US compute edge and strain allied export controls. The Asia Cable
• [New] The safeguard framework's treatment of Turkey will significantly influence bilateral relationships, trade flows, & political dynamics, requiring careful diplomatic management alongside technical trade policy implementation. OREACO
• [New] The regulation draft specifies that Norway, Iceland, & Liechtenstein will be exempt from safeguard measures pursuant to European Economic Area agreement provisions, reflecting the deep economic integration, regulatory alignment, & free trade principles characterizing EEA relationships. OREACO
• [New] In light of the free trade agreement between the EU and MERCOSUR countries, we can expect an increase in protests by European farmers and agricultural lobbyists. International Liberty Institute
• [New] While global superpowers continue to negotiate trade wars over technology, the rest of the world has quietly entered a new state of systemic vulnerability: algorithmic neo-colonialism. Inkstick
• [New] Vietnam, Canada and Mexico could in theory see their 2026 GDP growth hit by -0.4 to -1.3 percentage points due to the latest tariff hikes announced by the US. Prestige Credit Group
• [New] The pharmaceutical sector has been navigating an unstable trade environment in recent months, marked by tariffs and geopolitical tensions that will continue to shape markets in 2026. Euronews
• [New] Trade tariffs will continue to reshape the global flow of goods and services in 2026. Prestige Credit Group
• [New] China could retaliate with export restrictions on critical parts of global supply chains, potentially causing production disruption and inflationary pressures. economic-research.bnpparibas.com

Last updated: 15 January 2026