Economy

DRIVER: The global economy still faces serious headwinds and political uncertainty potentially balanced by the enormous promise of technological advancements in many fields. Read on to get a solid handle on the opportunities and risks you and your organization may likely face and set your sails accordingly.

[New] The impact of further population loss could be both economically devastating and precipitate a humanitarian crisis, as more than $24 billion of the U.S. economy and 35% of global food production relies on pollinators such as bees.
[New] US crude oil production is expected to fall 870,000 barrels per day to 11.38 million bpd in 2020, a less steep decline than the 990,000 bpd previously forecast.
[New] Iraq is seeking an exemption from an OPEC + deal curbing oil production during the first quarter of 2021 but will adhere to the cuts over the next three months.
[New] A stronger rebound in the global economy could reduce the decline in oil demand and lead to a gradual recovery by the end of 2020, which could maintain long-term scenarios.
[New] Thermal coal prices are forecast to average US$60 a tonne in 2020 and US$62 in 2021, while hard coking coal prices are forecast to average US$126 a tonne in 2020 and US$133 in 2021.
[New] Global countertop demand in value terms is forecast to increase 5.1% per year through 2024, supported in part by rising average prices for all major countertop materials.
[New] Oil prices will rise to $ 70/bbl due to continued OPEC production cuts, geopolitical risks (e.g., tensions in the Middle East), and rule changes as the International Maritime Organization's low-sulfur fuel regulations are expected to prompt new oil demand in 2020.
[New] The prices of lithium-ion batteries are expected to decrease further in the coming years as the production capacity continues to rise owing to the strong demand for EVs.
[New] Copper prices are forecast to average US$5,990 a tonne in 2020, before rising an average 2.0% each year to reach a projected US$6,900 a tonne in 2025.
[New] Higher production in the short term Australian gold mine production is forecast to increase by 7.1% in 2019-20 and 9.0% in 2020-21, reaching a peak of 378 tonnes in 2021-22.
[New] World mine production is expected to grow until 2022, and is then projected to decline at an annual rate of 0.5% between 2023 and 2025, to 3,596 tonnes in 2025, as ore grades decline.
[New] Gold scrap supply is forecast to rise at an average annual rate of 2.0% over the next two years, to 1,357 tonnes in 2021, as high gold prices - both in US dollar and local currency terms - encourage gold selling in major jewellery consuming markets such as China and India.
[New] Australia is expected to overtake China as the world's largest gold producing country in 2021, producing 383 tonnes, as miners respond to record prices.
[New] After 2020, gold prices are projected to fall by around 3.7% a year, to US$1,220 an ounce in 2025, due to the recovery of the global economy and a higher interest rate environment.
[New] The real value of Australia's gold exports is forecast to set a record of $26 billion in 2019-20, driven by higher prices and export volumes, before declining to $21 billion in 2024-25 as gold prices ease back.
[New] Australia is expected to overtake China as the world's largest gold producing country in 2021, with high prices encouraging an expansion in production.
[New] Oil production in 2020 is forecast to increase, due to the assumed ending of OPEC + production targets in the second quarter of 2020.
[New] China's oil consumption is forecast to increase from 13 million barrels a day in 2019 to reach 15 million barrels a day in 2025.
[New] Slowing consumption growth and rapid growth in US production will continue to weigh on prices, and limit the effectiveness of OPEC + efforts to increase them.
[New] Higher OPEC + production is expected to weigh on prices in 2020, particularly in the first half of 2020 when global oil consumption is assumed to be constrained by COVID-19.
[New] The value of Australia's LNG exports is forecast to decline to $49 billion in 2019-20 and fall back further to $44 billion in 2020-21, in real terms, driven by declining oil-linked contract prices (at which most Australian LNG is sold).
[New] The precise scale of growth in India's LNG imports over the next five years is subject to uncertainty, and depends on the pace of infrastructure development and the progress of policy reforms, which will impact on the domestic gas production and consumption balance.
[New] Asian LNG spot prices are forecast to remain low over the first half of 2020, before lifting in the second half of the year, and average US$3.70 per MMbtu in 2020.

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Last updated: 15 September 2020