• korea
• Risking global recession through a foolish protectionist spiral or forcing China to drop the 'dollar bomb' is not a credible strategy for soliciting Chinese assistance with handling North Korea.
• An isolated North Korea will be more rational if the international society treats it in a rational way.
• Trump is putting American troops based in South Korea and Japan in danger by risking instigating a war with North Korea.
• The United States will prohibit entry of citizens from North Korea to the United States as part of a sweeping new travel ban that slaps restrictions on Iran, Chad, Libya.
• China and Russia are expected to oppose a complete oil export ban on North Korea.
• British Defence Secretary Michael Fallon hinted the UK could become involved in a US-led war against North Korea.
• The Trump administration simply cannot allow North Korea to begin lobbing nuclear weapons across sovereign nations and use the Pacific Ocean as its own personal atomic testing grounds.
• Nonproliferation experts have long suspected North Korea and Iran are sharing know-how when it comes to their rogue missile programs.
• President Trump accused Iran of collaborating with North Korea to strengthen their missile technology.
• America will be left with no choice but to pursue Cold War style policies of deterrence and containment with North Korea.
• The ban on textiles is expected to cost North Korea more than $700m (£530m) a year.
• The latest round of UN sanctions include capping crude oil exports at present levels and reductions in other commodities that will result in a 30% drop in the overall oil supply to North Korea.
  
• state
• The world will become more unstable if North Korea is not accepted as a nuclear state.
• The U.S. most likely will accept the reality of North Korea as a nuclear state.
• Pyongyang is using unofficial channels to emphasize that it will not entertain negotiations devoted to denuclearization but that it is open to talks that would lead the United States and its allies to accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state.
• The United States will prohibit entry of citizens from North Korea to the United States as part of a sweeping new travel ban that slaps restrictions on Iran, Chad, Libya.
• The United States could be forced into further escalation of the crisis.
• The United States could change its military behavior somewhat to mollify North Korea and try to get momentum behind a general de-escalation of current tensions.
• A possible war between the United States of America and North Korea will produce vast human casualties.
• If North Korea takes measures that are considered high-level threats by, for example, attacking US military base on Guam Island or US allies such as South Korea and Japan: The probability of a military conflict will greatly increase and the United States of America will respond in kind.
• Even if North Korea might not be able to engage in an arms race with the United States, Russia and China will try.
  
• weapon
• With chemical weapons the South Korea casualties could double.
• North Korea will likely attack South Korea through its depth with chemical weapons.
• North Korea will not hesitate to launch chemical and biological weapons at South Korean and U.S. air bases or on main supply routes.
• Complicating North Korea's military threat and the U.S. response to it is the large arsenal of conventional and chemical weapons that the North has at its disposal against U.S. ally South Korea.
• The United States would be under immense pressure to limit potential damage by destroying North Korean nuclear weapons if there was a high probability that it could do so successfully.
• The Trump administration simply cannot allow North Korea to begin lobbing nuclear weapons across sovereign nations and use the Pacific Ocean as its own personal atomic testing grounds.
• North Korea will not part with its nuclear weapons under any circumstances and is resolved to suffer economic sanctions and risk war with the U.S. to keep them.
• North Korea just intimated that it may test a nuclear weapon somewhere above the Pacific Ocean.
• North Korea will likely not be able to use its few nuclear weapons.
  
• deterrence
• America will be left with no choice but to pursue Cold War style policies of deterrence and containment with North Korea.
• Multilateral arms control failures mean the Korean "solution" Trump talks about with increasing frequency could spell the end of deterrence and the beginning of an unchecked global nuclear arms race.
• North Korea attaining a credible nuclear deterrence will curtail the need for brinkmanship-based diplomacy and may make the US more amenable to negotiations.
  
• war
• Trump is putting American troops based in South Korea and Japan in danger by risking instigating a war with North Korea.
• North Korea has ratcheted up international tension and fear with its sixth and largest nuclear test but South Koreans feel increasingly doubtful it will start a war.
• North Korea will not start a war.
• The United States hasn't experienced an international conflict on its continental territory for well over a century and lacks the political stamina to accept the risk of war on its mainland or so North Korea imagines.
• China is legitimately worried that an economic crisis in North Korea could lead to a flood of refugees or all-out war.
• Experts agree that a military threat from the U.S. remains the most compelling reason for why North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is likely to hold back from approaching all-out war.
• North Korea is creating a threat to the United States that could lead the U.S. into preventive strikes against North Korea and either force it back down or trigger a conventional war that it would lose catastrophically-albeit at immense cost to South Korea.
  
• strike
• Counterforce strikes could drag the United States deeper into a costly conflict in Northeast Asia that it otherwise might not consider escalating.
• Military action would run the risk of nuclear strikes against U.S. bases in South Korea, Japan, and Guam.
• Washington regards both the risks of a nuclear armed North Korea and the costs of launching a preventive strike against Pyongyang as unacceptably high.
• Only being able to threaten the US mainland with a retaliatory nuclear strike can stop American military intervention.
  
• technology
• President Trump accused Iran of collaborating with North Korea to strengthen their missile technology.
• Recent improvements in missile technology mean that North Korea does have the capability to carry out its threat.
• American companies could develop nuclear technologies in North Korea that would be a hard sell.
• North Korea's Possible Nuclear Threat Arises from Sale of Nuclear and Missile Technology.
  
• conflict
• Military action could draw China into a conflict.
• Counterforce strikes could drag the United States deeper into a costly conflict in Northeast Asia that it otherwise might not consider escalating.
• North Korea has escalated the number of missile tests this year and the possibility of a heated conflict could affect consumer spending.
• The United States hasn't experienced an international conflict on its continental territory for well over a century and lacks the political stamina to accept the risk of war on its mainland or so North Korea imagines.
• If North Korea takes measures that are considered high-level threats by, for example, attacking US military base on Guam Island or US allies such as South Korea and Japan: The probability of a military conflict will greatly increase and the United States of America will respond in kind.
• The risks of a military conflict with North Korea is growing day by day.
• The risk of North Korea accidentally striking Japan could spark a serious conflict.
  
• threat
• Recent improvements in missile technology mean that North Korea does have the capability to carry out its threat.
• Haley's comments indicated the United States was not backing down from its threat of military action against North Korea.
• The spread of radical Islamist movements all pose threats to global peace and stability.
• North Korea is creating a threat to the United States that could lead the U.S. into preventive strikes against North Korea and either force it back down or trigger a conventional war that it would lose catastrophically-albeit at immense cost to South Korea.
• Analysts who remain too focused on a deliberate nuclear war scenario could vastly underestimate the cumulative nuclear threat that North Korea can pose to the US and its allies.
• Escalating threats from the White House are not helping efforts for a diplomatic solution with North Korea.
• The United States has multiple audiences to address in dealing with the growing threat from North Korea.
• If North Korea takes measures that are considered high-level threats by, for example, attacking US military base on Guam Island or US allies such as South Korea and Japan: The probability of a military conflict will greatly increase and the United States of America will respond in kind.
• Russia, ISIS and North Korea are key threats to the world's safety.
  
• arsenal
• Complicating North Korea's military threat and the U.S. response to it is the large arsenal of conventional and chemical weapons that the North has at its disposal against U.S. ally South Korea.
• The United States can inspire caution in Pyongyang by threatening its nuclear arsenal.
• North Korea will not give up its bombs because the regime feels its nuclear arsenal is the only thing deterring countries, especially the US, from overthrowing it.

Sentiment analysis
After a period of negative bluff and bluster, sentiment took a decided turn for the worse in August as both sides escalated the crisis and pundits began laying out possible future, and mostly bleak, scenarios. We are now seeing the tensions beginning the shift of risky assets to safe havens in September. Have you begun considering the potential impacts on your organization and decided on worst-case mitigating actions?

Trend
North Korea was already on the threat radar before Donald Trump took power. Indeed, President Obama warned him that this was the most pressing issue in his in-basket. The radar blips have been getting stronger ever since.


Metrics
Athena thinks the tipping point for this crisis will be in 2018, but it could come far sooner than that with one major misstep from either side. She calculates a 26% chance that a war will ensue next year. Depending on the breadth of a crisis the world could lose billions in future economic benefits.

Mind map
The mood music in the mind map makes for very concerned reading. All the talk is of power struggles, conflict, tit-for-tat escalations and opposing leadership views that point to war and not diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis.

Geomap
The Geomap shows that a war begun between the US and North Korea will have far-reaching effects on China, India, Pakistan, Russia and the Middle East. Global trade could be seriously impacted to the point of producing a global recession and other countries like Iran could be encouraged to emulate North Korea’s policy.

Possible US Options
These options were auto generated by our robot using the forecasts above:

The US now appears to be boxed in to either accepting NK as a nuclear power and offering carrots and sticks in return for Kim agreeing not to threaten any other country in any way. Or, following through on its threats to denuclearise NK by force. Either alternative is fraught with future threats. One side or the other, will have to blink or come up with out-of-the-box thinking to avoid the latter, as Kennedy did with the Bay of Pigs incident in 1963.